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Credit Cards Are the Next Credit Crunch
Wednesday, March 11,2009 07:21 PM
Great opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal this week on the dangers of credit card companies decreasing credit limits ... especially because they are pulling back too quickly, too indiscriminately, and sometimes to the wrong people. And with people (and we all do it) thinking of our unused credit balances as a fall-back plan if something goes wrong, almost anyone can get themselves into trouble.
Few doubt the importance of consumer spending to the U.S. economy and its multiplier effect on the global economy, but what is underappreciated is the role of credit-card availability in that spending. Currently, there is roughly $5 trillion in credit-card lines outstanding in the U.S., and a little more than $800 billion is currently drawn upon. While those numbers look small relative to total mortgage debt of over $10.5 trillion, credit-card debt is revolving and accordingly being paid off and drawn down over and over, creating a critical role in commerce in America.
Also:
...the very foundation of credit-card lending over the past 15 years has been misguided. In order to facilitate national expansion and vast pools of consumer loans, lenders became overly reliant on FICO scores that have borne out to be simply unreliable.
So, strangely, they are using another unreliable method for pulling back:
...home price depreciation has been a more reliable determinant of consumer behavior than FICO scores. Hence, lenders have reduced credit lines based upon "zip codes," or where home price depreciation has been most acute. Such a strategy carries the obvious hazard of putting good customers in more vulnerable liquidity positions simply because they live in a higher risk zip code. With this, frequency of default is increased. In other words, as lines are pulled and borrowing capacity is reduced, paying borrowers are pushed into vulnerable financial positions along with nonpaying borrowers, and therefore a greater number of defaults in fact occur.
And, finally, this:
Currently five lenders dominate two thirds of the market. These lenders need to work together to protect one another and preserve credit lines to able paying borrowers by setting consortium guidelines on credit. We, as Americans, are all in the same soup here, and desperate times are requiring of radical and cooperative measures.
Hopefully, that's not too much to ask for. Presumably, small businesses are experiencing the same issues with their credit - and with more crippling results because of the ripple effect their issues would have on their ability to keep their doors open and thus on their employees, suppliers, customers and community. Read the full (free wsj.com) article here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123664459331878113.html We'd love to hear your thoughts on this!